Operation Linda Nchi: The War That Should Not Have Been!

On 13th September 2011, a British couple, the Tebbutts, holidaying on a Kenyan island in the Indian Ocean are attacked by what was widely reported, without sufficient evidence, as Somali gunmen. David Tebbutt, is killed and his wife Judith is kidnapped. And, then, on 13th October, two Spanish aid workers with medical charity MSF are abducted near Dadaab refugee camp. Suddenly, there was panic! Kenya's chief foreign exchange earner was being threatened and Al-shabab were fast becoming the main suspects and, with Kenya never being involved in wars, few predicted what was to come next.

Just five days after the last abductions, on 18 October, Kenya invades southern Somalia in a two-pronged offensive it claims will defeat al-Shabaab. That is simple enough, isn't it? Al-shabab commits abductions in Kenya and the latter is going to get rid of the former to secure its land and protect its money-making tourist industry. However, that doesn't seem to be the case.

What was being sold to us as an impromptu reaction to the recent abductions seems to have been on the table from as far back as 2010. According to The Guardian, "several sources agree that the Kenyan intervention plan was discussed and decided in 2010, then finalised with input from western partners, including the US and to a lesser extent France", with Nairobi using the kidnappings "as an excuse to launch an operation ready and waiting." On 27 October Kenyan government spokesman Alfred Mutua said that the incursion had been planned months in advance and that the operation had been "going on for quite some time".

And, in a leaked 2010 cable detailing a meeting between the TFG and the United States government states that "president Sharif offered a qualified "yes" when asked if he supported the [Government of Kenya's (GOK)] Lower Juba initiative" and that he "told the GOK that the TFG did not want to see Somalia further divided[. ..] The GOK had reassured the TFG that it also did not want to see Somalia divided and that it intended to use the troops now being trained in Kenya for a national not a regional mission."

Another evidence pointing to this war being months, if not years, in planning is this report in which The Daily Nation reported  that "the government gave the National Security Intelligence Service Sh13 billion three months before the military offensive, in a controversial decision that saw Security minister George Saitoti grilled in Parliament." This report is no longer available on the Nation website, for whatever reason, but there are other sites that carry a copy. Or, perhaps, I could not just find it. Anyway, since funds were made available for the war three months before the series of kidnappings took place, it's safe to say that the war is, by no means, a reaction to the abductions.

And, whether Al-shabab were behind it or not is open to question. In the first place, if we agree that the abductions didn't provoke the war and that the Kenyan government was merely using them as an excuse for the war (as stated in the Guardian report), we can safely assume that whoever carried them out was in collusion with the government. Now, I don't know about you, but, I wouldn't bet a penny on Al-shabab helping Kenya with anything. Plus, Al-shabab are well known for proudly and promptly claiming responsibility for anything they do, however atrocious - from bombing innocent children in schools to digging up graves. Surely, they wouldn't hesitate to claim this one. In fact, they've gone out of their way in denying it in a way that is very unshabab-like. Recently, they have taken to twitter and, along with the odd mischievous jab at the 
KDF, this is what they had to say about the reasons for the war:

"LindaNchi was not in response to kidnapping of aid workers & tourists, as falsely alleged, but rather to
subjugate the people of Somalia".

I wouldn't go so far as agreeing with the last part of that statement but I certainly do agree with the first.
Whatever the motive, this is a war doomed from its inception. A war Kenya could very well do without, a large chunk of taxpayer shillings going down the drain at a time when patients are dying in the hospitals with doctors downing their tools, clamouring for better pay. Even though the doctor crisis is almost resolved, more civil unrest is set to follow as inflation bites. War is the last thing Kenyans needed. The same could be said for the much more war-hardened Somali population. They have had more than their fair share of wars and droughts. Time to give them a breather, for once.

It looks like the elusive Iraqi 'weapons of mass destruction' all over again. Only this time, it is Kenya dolling out the lies.

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